"Âeles Capital" - "Ókrnafta"

YK "Âeles Capital" appropriated recommendation to buy to actions of "Ókrnafty" (ticker of ÏÔÒÑ: UNAF) with a having a special purpose price 282,74 UAH ($58,3). In spite of tendency to the decline on actions of company, from point of technical analysis the short-term investments in these papers are pretty attractive.

"Ókrnafta" is the largest company with long-term experience on the booty of oil and gas runback in Ukraine. But in spite of it, she was not able to guarantee sufficient experience and accumulated facilities for victory in a tender on development of the most considerable project now - Ïrykerchenskogo area on the Black sea shelf. The state from the side not only did not lobby activity of podkontrol'noy company, providing 90% booty of hydrocarbons in a country, but even reduced possibilities of development and expansion of making. The gradual increase of the rent payments for an oil and gas runback put under a question the positive dynamics of "Ókrnafty" and resulted in reduction of booty and to the possible closing of deposits in western part of Ukraine. Taking into account an exhausting tax base, "Ókrnafta" was not able to develop enough and go out on the level of many foreign extractive companies. To action were plugged in the calculation of index of Russell Global Index, that is a quite good index not only for the Ukrainian market but also for a separate company on the whole.

An investment group "Ñokrat" promoted recommendation on actions of "Ókrnafty" with purchase to aggressive purchase and having a special purpose price from $85,5 to $114,7. Estimation of long-term prospects of company by the model of DCF results in a fair value $114,7 for action, and comparative estimation on expectations 2008 years (EV/EBITDA - 2,1, P/E - 3,1) results in a cost $135,3. From the beginning of cy of price on action of company fell practically in unison with a market, repeating the dynamics of index of ÏÔÒÑ, in spite of the fact that an oil price grew all the time. The analyst Dmitry Õoroshun considers that mentality of investors which pay attention to the corporate conflict, was torn off from fundamental indexes which demonstrate substantial growth. So, on the II quarter 2008 years a net profit is forecast at level $296 millions (growth on 27% as compared to the I quarter), EBITDA - $202 millions (63%), a net income is $168 millions (88%). A high oil price will stipulate high indexes and for 2008 throughout the year - is expected, that a net profit will make $1,573 milliards, EBITDA - $1,144 milliards, a net income is $754 millions In future an analyst forecasts falling of oil price from $120 for the barrel of brand of BRENT in 2008 to $80 to 2012 years and increase of price on the sold gas to $198 for thousand cubic meters, that is very conservative estimation. It is not expected also expansions of network of ÀÇÑ (now 563 stations). An analyst considers thus, that the volumes of sales of fuel will grow to the normal level - with 2,5 ò on the station in a day in a cy to 3,5 ò in 2009 and to 7,5 ò in 2013.